So if you’re like me, you were probably watching the townhall that President Donald Trump did with CNN and based on the audience, I think its fair to say his performance in the May 10th town hall hosted by CNN was a great analysis of his political strategy and appeal. He reminded his loyal supporters of why they voted for him in 2016 and why they should do so again in 2024. He also showed his defiance and resilience in the face of multiple challenges and controversies. It was peak Trump all over again and I don’t think the media can resist the allure that Trump has.
One of the most striking aspects of the town hall was the nostalgic feelings that it brought back seeing him on the stage. Trump spoke with confidence and charisma, using his familiar rhetoric and gestures. He attacked his opponents, praised his achievements, and did not back down when challenged on matters such as the election. He also displayed his humor and wit, cracking jokes and engaging with the audience. I truly think he genuinely fed off of the energy that was in the room. The crowd responded to his lines, jeers, and typical Trump persona with cheers, applause, and chants of "We love you" and "Four more years". For a CNN Townhall, this panel was unabashedly based.
The level of receptiveness of the crowd in this event was comparable to that of 2016, when Trump was an outsider candidate who tapped into a populist wave of discontent with the status quo and malaise of the Obama Admin’s failings and lack of accountability. He energized his base with his promises to make America great again, to build a wall on the southern border, and to drain the swamp of corruption. There was a perfect storm of conditions that made the air and environment perfect for a maverick like Trump to essentially come in and wreck the narrative and the establishment, much like we’re seeing take form under the markedly less competent “Biden Administration.”
A lot of people. particularly the DeSantis bloc of influencers will use the 2020 and 2022 elections as a marker for why Trump is past his prime and can’t win in 2024, but there are a few key things they forget. (Or willingly omit, depending on how well they’re paid.) The 2020 election gave a false read on the levels of excitement and enthusiasm for Trump due to Covid-19 pandemic and therein voting rule changes which made conditions ripe for the Democratic party to capture the disinterested and “default Democrat” votes using unlimited mail-in voting and haphazard establishment of unmonitored ballot drop boxes. The health crisis also disrupted his campaign rallies, limited his travel, and gave an out to the markedly less exciting and enthusiasm inducing Biden Campaign who used limits on attendance and the digital medium to mask the low energy of their campaign. This created a perception, along with the “default Democrat” phenomenon that Biden was a far stronger candidate than he was which could have also affected some less tribal and more fickle swing voters. Something of which is NOT on the table for 2024, with the exit of the “Pandemic” having removed many of those changes as well as not having the benefit of the doubt anymore.
The 2024 election is a better analogue to 2016, as Trump seeks to reclaim his status as a political outsider who can shake up Washington and restore American greatness. He faces a weaker Democratic party which seems to be playing the defensive much more than they’re used to and is struggling to pass its agenda and to deal with multiple crises at home and abroad. The financial picture is a lot more bleak than what it was in the 2016 election which plays to his strength as the nostalgia of as the oft-wrong Jim Cramer would say “Were the best economic numbers of our lives” will be in full effect.
Another notable aspect of the town hall was how Trump handled the questions from the moderator Kaitlan Collins, who tried to challenge him on various issues and facts. Collins attempted to set some traps for him to answer wrong or contradict himself, but Trump managed to avoid them or turn them around in his favor. For example:
- When Collins asked him about his role in inciting the January 6th riot at the US Capitol, Trump pointed out the involvement other groups and elements infiltrating his peaceful supporters and causing violence. He made sure to focus on the fact that he called for peace multiple times before and after things got out of hand.
- When Collins asked him about his sexual abuse trial brought by writer E Jean Carroll, Trump denied ever meeting her or assaulting her similar to how he had characterized his arguments in court. He didn’t display the expected level of discontent that Collins wanted from the question or go on to make any unique insults or denigration of Carroll despite the fantastical nature of her claims and how insulting they were.
- When Collins asked him about his views on abortion, Trump refused to say whether he supported a federal ban on abortion or not. He instead repeated that the outlandish position of many along the “Pro-Choice” side was to allow unlimited unfettered abortion up to 9 Months.
Even though there could have been more nuance or thought put into some of his answers, he chose the right thing to say for his base and his potential voters. He stuck to his core messages and themes, without alienating or offending anyone. He also showed his confidence and conviction, without appearing defensive or uncertain. These were all you could expect or hope from a man who has largely been away from the debate at large on his Truth Social App and engaging with people who would more often than not be more obsequious to what he said.
All in all, the key takeaway here is that if you were a fan of Trump in 2016, you’re probably going to love what he is selling for 2024 because he’s essentially bringing most of it back but now with conditions that may be more ripe for a larger swathe of the American public to be receptive. His energy and stance on this stage may be an indicator that anyone hoping to hop into the Republican field should there be full primaries may need to be prepared for a more energetic and dangerous Trump as once again, all cameras seem to be drawn to him.
Solid analysis.
Well done. Great synopsis.